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☆ Behind this week's selloff and what could cause it to turn into a full-blown correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.

Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

☆ Daniel Kahneman’s Gift for Adversarial Collaboration Is What We Need Now - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Cass R. Sunstein | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Our all-American belief that money really does buy happiness is roughly correct for about 85 percent of us. We know this thanks to the latest and perhaps final work of Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner who insisted on the value of working with those with whom we disagree. Professor Kahneman, who died last week at the age of 90, is best known for his pathbreaking explorations of human judgment and decision-making, and of how people deviate from perfect rationality. Beyond a threshold at or below $90,000, Professor Kahneman and Professor Deaton found, there is no further progress in average happiness as income increases. Eleven years later, Matthew Killingsworth, a senior fellow at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, found exactly the opposite: People with higher income reported higher levels of average happiness.

Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Kahneman, Angus Deaton, Deaton, Matthew Killingsworth Organizations: Princeton, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

☆ Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner who wrote Thinking, Fast and Slow, dies aged 90
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New Delhi CNN —Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize for his pioneering theories on behavioral economics, has died. The Israeli-American psychologist died peacefully on Wednesday, according to a release from Princeton University, whose faculty he had joined in 1993. Kahneman, who also wrote the best-selling book Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped debunk the notion that people’s behavior is driven by rational decision-making, and instead is often based on instinct. Then, at 27, he returned to Hebrew University to teach statistics and psychology and began his famous partnership with Amos Tversky, also a Hebrew University psychology professor. In 2002, six years after Tversky’s death, Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics for their models of how intuitive reasoning is flawed in predictable ways.

Persons: New Delhi CNN — Daniel Kahneman, Kahneman, Danny, Eldar Shafir, ” Kahneman, Amos Tversky Organizations: New, New Delhi CNN, Princeton University, Hebrew University, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Locations: New Delhi, American, Tel Aviv, Paris, France, British, Palestine, Israel, Jerusalem, Berkeley

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his insights into how ingrained neurological biases influence decision making, died Wednesday at the age of 90. In an excerpt from his book, Kahneman described a “leaderless group” challenge used by the Israeli army's Psychology Branch to assess future leadership potential. “It was the first cognitive illusion I discovered,” Kahneman later wrote. “The experience was magical,” Kahneman later wrote in his Nobel autobiography. Combined with other findings, the pair developed a theory of risky choice they eventually named “prospect theory.”Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for these and other contributions that ended up underpinning the discipline now known as behavioral economics.

Persons: — Daniel Kahneman, Kahneman, Amos Tversky, —, ” Kahneman, Barbara Tversky —, Amos Tversky —, Tversky, “ Amos Organizations: FRANCISCO, Associated Press, Stanford University Locations: Tel Aviv

☆ Daniel Kahneman, Who Plumbed the Psychology of Economics, Dies at 90
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Robert D. Hershey Jr. | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Daniel Kahneman, who never took an economics course but who pioneered a psychologically based branch of that field that led to a Nobel in economic science in 2002, died on Wednesday. His death was confirmed by his partner, Barbara Tversky. Professor Kahneman, who was long associated with Princeton University and lived in Manhattan, employed his training as a psychologist to advance what came to be called behavioral economics. (Ms. Tversky had been married to Professor Tversky, who died in 1996. She and Professor Kahneman became partners several years ago.)

Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Barbara Tversky, Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Tversky Organizations: Princeton University Locations: Manhattan, Stanford

☆ We left our boxes in storage for a year when our move was interrupted. Minimalism worked out well for us.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Fern Reiss | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

They were moved straight to our shiny new storage unit, and the plan was to move them into our temporary rental a few weeks later. Wouldn't it be better to show our apartment if we didn't have boxes in the way and there was less clutter everywhere? We decided to leave the boxes in the storage unit for the moment. All of a sudden, week by week, we were making pilgrimages to the storage unit, tossing out boxes we could live without. It still wasn't good timing for real estate, so we moved the lot of it into a smaller storage unit and immediately lopped hundreds of dollars a month from our budget.

Persons: unpack, Daniel Kahneman, hadn't, repacking Organizations: Service, Business

☆ How Behavioral Economics Took Over America - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Leif Weatherby | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

My watch constantly buzzes with “relax reminders.” The number of calories appears next to every menu item at fast-food restaurants. The “nudge doctrine” the pair developed has led to the creation of hundreds of “nudge units” in governments all over the world (including our own), that seek to put nudges in policies and procedures. The science behind nudging is little more than a thin set of claims about how humans are “predictably irrational,” and our policies and systems should heavily divest from its influence. The nudge doctrine originated in behavioral economics, a field of applied social science that has deeply influenced public policy and algorithm design. Behavioral economics is based in large part on the Nobel-winning insights of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, whose groundbreaking experiments in the 1970s showed that humans made systematic errors when reasoning about statistics.

Persons: Cass Sunstein, Richard Thaler, Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky Organizations: Nobel

☆ Millennials say they need $525,000 a year to be happy. A Nobel prize winner's research shows they're not wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For millennials, happiness would come from a $525,000 annual salary. Still, high inflation, interest rates, and student loans damper Americans' financial happiness. Here's what each generation said they need to earn annually, as well as the net worth required, to achieve happiness:Gen Z: $128,000, with a net worth of $487,711Millennials: $525,000, with a net worth of $1,699,571Gen X: $130,000, with a net worth of $1,213,759Boomer: $124,000, with a net worth of $999,945AdvertisementMen said they needed to earn $381,000 annually, while women said $183,000 would make them happy. The latest economic data could make Americans' financial happiness goals more achievable. AdvertisementThe latest Survey of Consumer Finances from the Federal Reserve, however, had a glimmer of hope for millennials when it comes to net worth.

Persons: —, Daniel Kahneman, Matthew Killingsworth, Angus Deaton, millennials Organizations: Service, Penn's Wharton School, Federal, Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve

☆ Ruzwana Bashir Is Quietly Connecting the Tech World
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +18 min

Story by Melia RussellPhotography by Lelanie FosterRuzwana Bashir is ransacking her kitchen cabinet for just the right tea. Bashir wears an Erdem floral-printed bra top, Erdem skirt, Giuseppe Zanotti shoes, Old Jewelry earrings along with her own bracelet and ring. "Part of building a business was going out and sharing what you were doing with the world," Bashir says. For years Bashir's startup had been building muscle around these capabilities; now it had an eager audience. Eating at acclaimed restaurants is fine, but Bashir prefers the more-intimate affairs at tech executives' homes because, she says, "you can stay longer."

Persons: Melia Russell, Lelanie Foster Ruzwana Bashir, Peek, She's, she's, Andy Warhol, Picasso, Bashir, I'm, Andreessen Horowitz, Jack Dorsey, Eric Schmidt, Goldman Sachs, Giuseppe Zanotti, Lelanie Foster, Bashir isn't, Elon Musk, Ronan Farrow, Roelof Botha, Mustafa Suleyman, we've, Bennett Miller, Capote, " Miller, —, doesn't, didn't, Madeleine Albright, Tom Ford, Jared Cohen, Oskar Bruening, Forbes, Mark Zuckerberg, I've, Bashir wasn't, Travis Kalanick, Adam Neumann, Ty, Emily Weiss, Bashir refashioned, Donald Trump, Bruening, Laurence Tosi's, Miller, Beyoncé, shrugs, Anna Wintour, Anna, we're, Taylor Swift, Katie Haun, Marc Benioff, Reid Hoffman, Marissa Mayer, Dick Costolo —, Cohen, Katherine Maher, Maher, Daniel Kahneman, It's, Radel, Becky Akinyode, Elaine Winter, Tiffany Bloomfield, Dela, Chad Hilliard, Enmi, Kenny Aquiles Ulloa, Cyrenae, Madison Perez, Aidan Lapp, Bashira Webb, Bryan Erickson, Jinyoung Chang, Rodriguez, Rebecca Zisser, Claire Landsbaum, Emma LeGault, Joi, Marie McKenzie, Conner Blake, Kyle Desiderio, Victoria Gracie, Nicole Forero, Virginia Alves Organizations: Google, Museum of, Business, Elon, Vogue, Roelof, Oxford University, Oxford Union, Blackstone Group, Harvard Business School, Studios, Web, Young, Organization, Dela Revoluciøn, Enmi Yang Digital Tech Locations: Manhattan, SoHo, Bahamas, United States, Balthazar, England, Israel, Petra, Istanbul, Elle, Utah, COVID, Salt Lake City, Costa Rica, Atlanta, WestCap

The letter, issued a week before the international AI Safety Summit in London, lists measures that governments and companies should take to address AI risks. Currently there are no broad-based regulations focusing on AI safety, and the first set of legislations by the European Union is yet to become law as lawmakers are yet to agree on several issues. "It (investments in AI safety) needs to happen fast, because AI is progressing much faster than the precautions taken," he said. Since the launch of OpenAI's generative AI models, top academics and prominent CEOs such as Elon Musk have warned about the risks on AI, including calling for a six-month pause in developing powerful AI systems. "There are more regulations on sandwich shops than there are on AI companies."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Yoshua Bengio, Geoffrey Hinton, Andrew Yao, Daniel Kahneman, Dawn Song, Yuval Noah Harari, Elon Musk, Stuart Russell, Supantha Mukherjee, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Safety, European, Elon, Thomson Locations: Rights STOCKHOLM, London, European Union, British, Stockholm

☆ Would a $100,000 salary make you happy? Here's when more money doesn't mean more joy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While money certainly helps bring joy and satisfaction to your life, it won't have the same impact on everyone. The researchers first set out to determine why one study showed a happiness plateau while the other did not. For the new study, the researchers decided to look at incomes above or below $100,000 as a starting point. Since Killingsworth's study categorized that salary in the $90,000 to $100,000 range, they decided to simply look at incomes above or below $100,000. An "unhappy minority" revealed itself, however, as the researchers found the most explicit happiness plateau among the least happy 15 to 20% of people.

☆ Money really does buy happiness for most people, researchers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Grace Dean | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It found that for the vast majority of people, money does buy you happiness. Meanwhile, happiness "increases steadily" along with income among the rest of the population, Killingsworth, Kahneman, and Mellers found. For the happiest 30% of people, happiness rises at an accelerated rate beyond $100,000. "In other words, the bottom of the happiness distribution rises much faster than the top in that range of incomes. Killingsworth, Kahneman, and Mellers noted, however, that the correlation between income and well-being was "weak, even if statistically robust."

☆ Bob Pisani: What UBS' Art Cashin taught me about the art of storytelling
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But for 60 years, Art Cashin has been one of the most influential men on Wall Street. Cashin is that rare exception: a man who knows what he was talking about, and sounds like he knows. Tiffany, Cashin said, knew that Morgan loved diamond stickpins, which he used to put in his tie. How do you tell a story about the stock market? Let's get back to the story about J.P. Morgan, Tiffany, and price discovery.

☆ CIOs Nominate Their Favorite Reads of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Tom Loftus | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +9 min

Chief information officers, ever alert to any development in a field that only hurtles forward, largely reflected that alacrity in their choice of reading during 2022. PREVIEWChris Bedi, chief digital information officer, ServiceNow Inc. Photo: IBM Corp.Ron Guerrier, chief information officer, HP Inc. Photo: Cisco Systems Inc.Fletcher Previn, chief information officer, Cisco Systems Inc. Photo: Home Depot Inc.Fahim Siddiqui, chief information officer, Home Depot Inc.

☆ Bob Pisani: Think you're a rational investor? These biases make it harder to reach your financial goals
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

They found that the fear of an emotional loss was more than twice as powerful as an emotional gain. Many of those biases are now a common part of our understanding of how humans interact with the stock market. These biases can be broken down into two groups: cognitive errors due to faulty reasoning, and emotional biases that come from feelings. Loss aversion is an example of an emotional bias. See if you recognize yourself in any of these emotional biases.

☆ The fear of loss can cost investors big-time. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Westend61The fear of loss is a powerful emotion for investors — and, if left unchecked, can cost them big bucks in the long term due to years of forfeiture of investment gains. watch nowFor investors, that evolutionary impulse plays out as "loss aversion bias." Investors have a bias toward avoiding financial loss. Prioritizing the avoidance of loss over earning a gain "is a major reason why so many investors underperform the market," Aguilar said. Meanwhile, 401(k) investors pulled money out of stock mutual funds during the same time period.

☆ Bob Pisani: How my obsession with a Black Sabbath poster showed how irrational we can be when investing
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

If you think knowing something about behavioral economics prevents you from doing stupid things, let me tell you about the Black Sabbath poster I bought. How I almost lost my mind bidding on a stupid Black Sabbath poster One day I was monitoring an online auction of rock posters. A 1976 Black Sabbath poster came up for sale. It's not like Black Sabbath has an intense cult of collectors, like Zeppelin or the Velvet Underground. With that damn Black Sabbath poster, I violated all the rules.

☆ Jason Zweig — Columnist at The Wall Street Journal
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Jason Zweig | Caitlin Mccabe | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Jason ZweigJason Zweig writes The Intelligent Investor column every weekend for The Wall Street Journal. He also writes Back in Business, an occasional column about financial history. Jason is the author of “Your Money and Your Brain,” on the neuroscience of investing, and the editor of the revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor,” the classic text that Warren Buffett has described as “by far the best book about investing ever written.”Before joining the Journal, Jason helped the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman write the book “Thinking, Fast and Slow.”Earlier, Jason was a senior writer for Money magazine, a guest columnist for Time magazine and CNN.com, and a senior editor at Forbes magazine. He spent a year studying Middle Eastern history and culture at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

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